地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：30年地方债发行利率升至高点

Report on Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report analyzes the supply and trading characteristics of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading performance, to help investors understand the current situation of the local government bond market [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - Issuance Scale: From September 15 - 19, 2025, local government bonds issued a total of 188.52 billion yuan, with new special bonds at 97.82 billion yuan and refinancing special bonds at 46.09 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in September reached 52.8 billion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10]. - Funding Allocation: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund allocation [3][10]. - Issuance Pricing: The issuance interest rate of 30 - year local bonds reached a new high this year. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year and 10 - year local bonds and the same - maturity treasury bonds widened to 20.8BP and 23.1BP respectively, while the issuance spread of 20 - year local bonds narrowed slightly to 20.6BP [3][16]. - Regional Distribution: In September, Guizhou, Guangdong, Henan and other regions were the main areas for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Guangdong and Hunan reached 59.61 billion yuan and 30.25 billion yuan respectively. The number of regions with an average coupon rate higher than 2.3% increased, and the local government bonds in Hunan even rose above 2.4% [3][18]. 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Anti - decline Ability: Local government bonds over 10 years are more resistant to decline than the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds. Last week, the indexes of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds fell by 0.07% and 0.28% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety performed worse than the same - maturity treasury bonds, while the over 10 - year variety had better anti - volatility ability than the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][23]. - Trading Activity: Government bonds in Guangdong, Hunan and other provinces were relatively actively traded, with the average trading term in both provinces above 26 years. The trading volume in Hunan and Guangxi increased month - on - month [4][23]. - Trading Yield: The average yield of local government bonds in mainstream regions is basically above 2%. The yields in regions with increased trading volume all exceed 2.25%, especially the local bonds in Guangxi, which reached 2.34% [4][23].