中泰期货晨会纪要-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Soybean oil, PTA, Bean No. 2, Plastic, White sugar, Zhengzhou cotton, Palm oil [6] - Bearish: Manganese silicon, Rebar, Glass, PVC, Polypropylene, Silver, Rapeseed oil [6] - Sideways: Asphalt, Corn, Rubber, Corn starch, Rapeseed meal, Tin, Iron ore, Bean No. 1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, Eggs, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead, Coke, Coking coal, Hot - rolled coil [6] Core Views - A - shares are expected to be volatile, with the probability of central bank loosening increasing. For stocks, a short - term sideways approach is recommended, and for bonds, a long - term bullish strategy is considered. In the commodity market, different commodities have different outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, policy impacts, and geopolitical factors [14][15] Summaries by Categories Macro Information - China sets new climate goals by 2035, including a 7% - 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 30% share of non - fossil energy, and 6 - fold growth in wind and solar power [8] - China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations [8] - Alibaba partners with NVIDIA on Physical AI and plans 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure investment [8] - The central bank conducts 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations in September, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan [9] - A new policy - based financial instrument of about 500 billion yuan is being established [9] - The US imposes a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are tariff - exempt since September [10] - The US mining giant's Indonesian copper mine has a mudslide, suspending production until 2027 and reducing 2026 output by 35% [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and trading sideways. A - shares are volatile, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 hitting new highs. The central bank's future easing probability is increasing [13][14] Treasury Bond Futures - Consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and buying bonds on dips, betting on more monetary easing [15] Black Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to rise in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the demand of finished products in "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream restocking before the National Day [17] Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, expect a bearish trend in the medium - to - long - term; for silicon iron, also recommend a bearish approach in the medium - term [18] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, observe the market sentiment in the short - term and turn bearish later; for glass, stay on the sidelines for now [19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, recommend waiting on the sidelines at high levels; for alumina, suggest shorting on rallies [20] Lithium Carbonate - Prices are supported by short - term inventory reduction and are expected to fluctuate widely [21] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, and consider buying on dips for far - month contracts [22] Polysilicon - The market is mainly driven by policy progress, with a wide - range volatile trend expected in the short - term [22][23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt a cautious short - selling strategy, and pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and tariffs [25][26] Sugar - Keep a short - selling strategy in the medium - term, and focus on the impact of typhoons and holiday capital flows [27] Eggs - Recommend short - selling on rallies, with a weakening trend expected after the peak season [27][28] Apples - Suggest buying on dips with a light position, and pay attention to the weather in production areas [29][30] Corn - Recommend selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract, and the price may decline further but has some support [31] Red Dates - Recommend short - selling on rallies [32] Pigs - Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts, and the spot price is expected to oscillate at a low level [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may turn to oversupply [35][36] Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil, affected by geopolitical risks and oversupply expectations [37] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile, with a short - term rebound possible [38] Rubber - The price may turn strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of weather [39] Methanol - Adopt a sideways - bullish strategy, and focus on port inventory reduction [40] Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate, affected by the price of liquid chlorine and the macro - market [41] Asphalt - Follow crude oil prices, and the demand is in the peak season [42] Polyester Industry Chain - The products are expected to continue to rebound, with different fundamentals for each product [43] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Adopt a long - term bearish strategy, with short - term cost - driven strength possible [43] Others Offset - Printing Paper - The market is expected to oscillate, and consider buying on dips or selling put options [45] Pulp - The market is expected to oscillate, and observe port inventory reduction and spot transactions [46] Logs - The market is expected to oscillate, and consider buying on dips if the price support is effective [47] Urea - Adopt an oscillating strategy, and pay attention to export news and downstream demand [47] Synthetic Rubber - Consider short - term long - positions with a stop - loss, and pay attention to macro - policies and downstream procurement [48]