光大证券晨会速递-20250926

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is approaching 80% if a new funding bill is not passed by the end of the month, which could lead to economic data being withheld and complicate Federal Reserve decisions [2] - In the event of a shutdown, gold is expected to outperform U.S. stocks and bonds [2] Group 2: Industry Research - U.S. Antimony Corporation (USAC) has secured a five-year exclusive contract with the U.S. Department of Defense worth up to $245 million for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic value of antimony [3] - Antimony prices have fluctuated this year, influenced by export policies and demand changes, with potential for domestic price increases as exports are expected to recover [3] Group 3: Company Research - Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ) has a projected dividend yield exceeding 7% for 2025, indicating strong value characteristics, with a current expected yield of 7.7% based on a profit forecast of 33 billion yuan and a 52% cash dividend rate [4] - Historically, Gree's expected dividend yield has exceeded 7% approximately 31% of the time from 2013 to 2024, supporting a "buy" rating with a target price of 54.10 yuan [4]