五矿期货农产品早报：农产品早报2025-09-26-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient soybean purchases until December, and the current cancellation of export tax in Argentina, there may be a short - term decline. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. However, considering the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will likely fluctuate within a range [2][4]. - Oils: Currently, the supply and demand of oils are balanced or slightly loose, but there is an expectation of tight supply in the future. Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and reduced export volume expectations in Indonesia, the market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after stabilization [6][9]. - Sugar: Affected by factors such as high sugar imports in August and a significant increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, short - term indicators suggest a wait - and - see approach before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - Cotton: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's operating rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - term. However, due to low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [14][15]. - Eggs: The spot price is expected to decline, with the near - term futures showing weakness and the far - term futures strengthening relatively due to expectations of improved supply - demand and capital games. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term futures after a decline [17][18]. - Pigs: The current spot price is accelerating its decline due to factors such as increased supply from group farms and panic selling by individual farmers. The futures price is also under pressure due to high premiums attracting short - selling. It is recommended to short the near - term futures and use option selling to manage volatility risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Market Information: US soybeans rose slightly on Thursday. Argentina has raised $7 billion and restored export tax. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly on Wednesday, with a decrease in trading volume and提货 volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [2]. - Strategy: Short - term, there may be a decline; medium - term, the market will fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of selling on rebounds [4]. Oils - Market Information: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased in July, while production and inventory increased. India bought a record 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina [6]. - Strategy: Medium - term, the market is expected to be moderately strong. Buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - Market Information: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated. StoneX predicted an increase in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season. Thailand and India are also expected to increase sugar production. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - Strategy: Overall bearish, wait - and - see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - Market Information: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were weak. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories were lower than the same period last year. US cotton's good - quality rate decreased slightly but was still high [14]. - Strategy: Short - term, wait and see due to conflicting factors of weak downstream demand and low inventory [15]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was stable with a few declines on the previous day. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak [17]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the short - term, focus on buying far - term futures after a decline [18]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price mainly declined on the previous day. Before the festival, demand was weak, and the number of pigs for sale was large [20]. - Strategy: Short the near - term futures and use option selling to manage risks [21].