国新国证期货早报-20250926

Variety Views - On September 25th, the three major A-share indexes showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3853.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13445.90 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.58% to 3235.76 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2371.1 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4593.49, a rise of 27.42 [1] - On September 25th, the coke weighted index fluctuated strongly, closing at 1777.0, a rise of 33.7. The coking coal weighted index consolidated within a range, closing at 1245.7 yuan, a rise of 12.2 [1] Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - For coke, port spot prices rose. The cost of coking coal increased, squeezing profit margins for coke enterprises. Steel mills' overall start - up remained high, and the rigid demand for coke increased before holidays, but overall restocking was expected to be limited [2] - For coking coal, prices in some regions adjusted. Supply was normal, demand was good, and online auctions generally trended upwards [2] Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Affected by technical factors, Zhengzhou sugar contract 2601 adjusted and closed slightly lower on Thursday. StoneX predicted that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. The global sugar market was expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons in 2025/26, compared with a shortage of 4.67 million tons in 2024/25 [2] Rubber - Affected by holidays, rubber prices fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower on Thursday. Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week, rubber prices fell at night. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points month - on - month and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3][5] Palm Oil - On September 25th, palm oil futures prices rebounded and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main contract P2601 closed with an upper and lower shadow small Yang line. Shipments from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% compared with the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 25th, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina re - imposed export withholding taxes. China had not ordered US soybeans. US soybean export sales in the week ending September 18 were 724,500 tons. Domestically, on September 25th, the main contract M2601 of soybean meal closed at 2956 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. China had ordered about 20 ships of Argentine soybeans [6] Live Hogs - On September 24th, live hog futures fluctuated. The main contract LH2511 closed at 12685 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.35%. Supply pressure was high, and although demand increased before holidays, it was still below expectations. In the short term, prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply. The supply was disrupted by the accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia. Technically, it broke through key resistance levels. Long - term supply was tight, and demand was expected to grow [8] Iron Ore - On September 25th, the main contract 2601 of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.25%. Supply and demand both increased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On September 25th, the main contract 2511 of asphalt fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.3%. Refinery production in October was expected to increase. Social inventory decreased, while refinery inventory pressure increased. Demand in the north was supported by pre - holiday construction, while demand in the south was weak due to weather. Prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13490 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots. China's cotton production in 2025 was expected to reach 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% increase year - on - year [10] Logs - On September 25th, the futures price of logs rebounded above the 10 - day moving average. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no major contradiction in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [10] Steel - On September 25th, rb2601 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3358 yuan/ton. There was pre - holiday restocking demand, but high - priced resources had average transactions. The steel market was generally balanced, and cost still supported prices. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [11] Alumina - On September 25th, ao2601 closed at 2942 yuan/ton. The market was facing supply surplus pressure. Future prices may maintain a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the situation in Guinea and domestic environmental policies [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 25th, al2511 closed at 20765 yuan/ton. Aluminum supply was stable at a high level, and inventory was increasing. Demand improvement was less than expected, but there was still support during the September peak season [11]