集运指数（欧线）：短线偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is relatively strong [1]. Core View of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed a relatively strong performance yesterday. Attention should be paid to the impact of shipping company price adjustment plans, capacity changes, and seasonal factors on different contracts. For the 2510 contract, there are potential upward risks; for the 2512 contract, it should not be over - estimated; and for the 2602 contract, the relative valuation is difficult to determine [1][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Conditions - EC2510 closed at 1,173.0 with a daily increase of 3.99%, trading volume of 38,888 and open interest of 35,526 with a decrease of 5,414. EC2512 closed at 1,783.1 with a daily increase of 6.21%, trading volume of 23,493 and open interest of 22,995 with an increase of 389. EC2602 closed at 1,696.2 with a daily increase of 7.85%, trading volume of 5,485 and open interest of 8,709 with an increase of 666 [1]. 2. Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 1,254.92, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,193.64, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,052/TEU, down 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,636/FEU, down 31.0% bi - weekly [1]. 3. Spot Freight Rates - Different shipping companies have different price adjustment plans. For example, Maersk's 42 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price is reported at $1,800/FEU, and HPL plans to increase prices in the second half of October and early November. Some shipping companies have announced price increases in mid - to late October, but the probability of the price increase actually happening is considered low [10]. 4. Capacity Situation - In October, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.5%. In November, the HMM Alliance announced an empty - sailing plan for the PA Alliance, and MSC will have 3 new ships launched. Excluding undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity in November is currently 310,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 16% [11]. 5. Contract Analysis - For the 2510 contract, if Maersk's price increase is implemented and other shipping companies follow suit, the 41 - 43 - week SCFIS average may be around 1,200 points, but considering shipping delays, it will likely be within 1,200 points. For the 2512 contract, due to factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing capacity surplus, it should not be over - estimated. For the 2602 contract, the relative valuation between it and the 12 - contract is difficult to determine [12][13].