政策仍有预期，基本?延续季节性改善

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" in the medium term [5]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of the peak season, the various links in the industry chain, especially the mid - upstream links, still show seasonal improvement characteristics. As the end of the month and the fourth quarter approach, policy expectations are strengthening. Against this background, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will maintain the current trend, mainly oscillating, with enhanced support for staged upward movement [1][5]. Summary by Related Categories Iron Element - Iron Ore: High - level demand provides support, factory inventories increase, and pre - holiday replenishment is obvious. The fundamental pressure is not significant, but the peak - season demand for building materials needs further verification, which limits the upward space. Affected by pre - holiday capital disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. Port trading volume decreased to 111.1 (-43.9) million tons, and the price of PB powder was 795 (+2) yuan/ton [1]. - Scrap Steel: Supply and demand both increase again, and steel enterprises have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the spot price. Short - term oscillation is expected. The average tax - free price of broken materials in East China is 2187 (+0) yuan/ton [1][8]. Carbon Element - Coke: Spot coal prices are rising rapidly, coking profits are continuously shrinking, and mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a new round of price increases. Although steel mills' coke inventories are moderately high, pre - holiday raw material inventories continue to increase, and the pre - holiday bullish expectation in the market is strong. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price at Rizhao Port is 1490 yuan/ton (+40) [1][2][9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mine production remains cautious, supply recovery is slow, and the upward height is limited. At the same time, the pre - National Day replenishment by the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low, with strong fundamental support. Pre - holiday coal prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 yuan/ton (+20) [2]. Alloys - Manganese Silicon: During the peak season, the downstream procurement demand is expected to support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is relatively pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still room for the price center to decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The ex - factory price in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (-30) [2][14]. - Silicon Iron: The peak - season expectation and firm cost support the price performance, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, there is still downward pressure on the price. The ex - factory price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5330 yuan/ton (0) [2][15]. Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream destocking, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward. The mainstream large - board price in North China is 1210 yuan/ton (+50) [2][10]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - level changes and have wide - range oscillations. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1230 yuan/ton (-) [2][13]. Commodity Indexes - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased. The commodity index was 2249.48 (+0.75%), the commodity 20 index was 2524.42 (+0.75%), and the industrial products index was 2269.30 (+1.07%). The steel industry chain index on the same day was 2054.48, with a daily increase of +0.37%, a 5 - day decrease of -0.06%, a 1 - month increase of +1.22%, and a year - to - date decrease of -2.55% [100][102].