软商品日报：新棉销售数据疲软，棉花短期承压-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the summer cold drink demand, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price is expected to remain in an oscillating state, and the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1][3] - Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the ending inventory is expected to be revised downwards. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the textile market, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise. The price is expected to oscillate, and the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15000.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.29, with a change of 1.05%. US cotton closed at 66.27, with a change of 0.20% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 9793.0, with a change of - 0.62%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3583.0, with a change of - 3.58% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar rose from 16.12 on September 24, 2025, to 16.29 on September 25, 2025, with a change of 1.05%. US cotton rose from 66.14 to 66.27, with a change of 0.20% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar spot price rose from 5800.0 to 5810.0, with a change of 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.14%. Xinjiang cotton spot price decreased from 15050.0 to 15000.0, with a change of - 0.33% [4] Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, and CF05 - 09 all decreased, while SR05 - 09 increased. The spreads of SR09 - 01 and CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA remained at 78.15, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1547.0, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 are 0.0879, 0.0874, 0.1067, and 0.1064 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF601 are 6.53 and 7.12 respectively [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9854.0 to 9793.0, with a change of - 0.62%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3716.0 to 3583.0, with a change of - 3.58% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: Sugarcane in southern producing areas is growing well, but in Xinjiang, the beet yield per unit has slightly decreased due to drought, and in central and western Inner Mongolia, the sugar content of beets has decreased and the harvest has been affected, delaying the sugar factory start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years [3] - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the ending inventory is expected to be revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the textile market, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]