资讯早班车-2025-09-26-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the convertible bond market shows wide - volatility characteristics, and attention should be paid to band and structural selection [27]. - Active funds reduce positions, while passive funds increase allocations. The delisting of Pufa Convertible Bonds in October may bring re - allocation demand [27]. - In Q4, the equity market tends to have a structural market. Equity - biased convertible bonds still have obvious elasticity advantages, and capital outflows bring more profit space for low - price convertible bonds [27]. - A portfolio of ten convertible bonds is recommended to select high - quality targets, focusing on elasticity, and the portfolio is adjusted monthly [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in that month were 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce called on the US to cancel unreasonable tariffs on China and emphasized that the biggest obstacle to Sino - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions [2]. - Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 17 series, Xiaomi Pad 8 series, and many other tech home appliances. Xiaomi's founder, CEO Lei Jun, said that self - developed mobile phone SoCs should be persisted for at least 10 years with an investment of at least 50 billion yuan [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5% [2]. Metals - On September 25, international precious metal futures generally rose. Fed officials sent mixed policy signals, reflecting the Fed's dilemma in balancing inflation and employment goals [3]. - On September 25, the closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract 2511 was 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%. The suspension of production at the Grasberg mine may exacerbate the global copper supply shortage [3][4]. - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity. High - end analysts predicted a 500,000 - ton copper supply loss in the next 12 - 15 months [4]. - Congo (Kinshasa) extended the cobalt export ban until October 15 and implemented an export quota system. Cobalt prices have risen nearly 40% this year [4]. - Citi raised its copper price forecast. It is expected that the medium - term copper price will rise to $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In August 2025, global crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year to 145.3 million tons, while China's crude steel production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 77.4 million tons [6]. - As of mid - September, the price of coke (quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke) decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the price of rebar (HRB400E Φ20mm) increased by 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - On September 25, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region eased supply concerns, but the unexpected decrease in US crude oil inventories offset some negative impacts [8]. - Daqing Gulong Continental Shale Oil National Demonstration Area added 158 million tons of proven shale oil reserves [8]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban on resellers and producers [8]. Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs called for stabilizing the supply of "vegetable basket" products and promoting the application of high - performance agricultural machinery [9]. - In 2024, China's organic product sales reached 124.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22.79%, making China the world's third - largest organic consumer market [9]. - China launched an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US starting from September 25 [10]. - The EU Commission adjusted its forecasts for wheat and corn production and exports in the 2025/26 season [10]. - Argentina resumed taxing the export of grains and their by - products after agricultural product sales reached $7 billion [10]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On September 25, the central bank conducted 483.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan on the same day [11]. - On September 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and has increased the volume of MLF for 7 consecutive months [11]. Important News and Information - China submitted a position paper on the issue of special and differential treatment to the WTO, not seeking new special and differential treatment in current and future negotiations [12][13]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Sino - US soybean trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, emphasizing that US unilateral restrictions are the main obstacle to normal economic and trade cooperation [2][13]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's measures to raise import tariffs on Chinese products [14]. - Three US companies were included in the unreliable entity list for their military - related cooperation with Taiwan [15]. - The China Foreign Exchange Trade System will optimize the "Swap Connect" operation mechanism and increase the daily net limit to 450 billion yuan from October 13 [15]. - The central bank deputy governor proposed to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [16]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly released a development roadmap for the fixed - income and money market [16]. - The scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time at the end of August [17]. - Internet giants such as Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are accelerating their layout in the dim - sum bond market [17]. - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched on September 24, with three business platforms launched [18]. - The Bank of China Research Institute predicted that more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4, and the RMB exchange rate will remain stable and may appreciate [18]. Bond Market Summary - MLF incremental roll - over had little positive impact on the bond market. Spot bonds and futures were generally weak [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while some other bonds fell [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.33% [22]. - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose [22]. - Shibor short - term varieties showed differentiation [23]. - The winning yields of some financial bonds issued by policy - based banks were announced [23][24]. - Inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds and silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds generally rose [24]. - European and US bond yields generally rose, with some exceptions [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1253, down 34 basis points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.60%, and most non - US currencies fell [26]. Stock Market Important News - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend, with the ChiNext Index hitting a new stage high for two consecutive days. AI concept stocks rebounded [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.13%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.89%. Geely Auto rose nearly 4% on its first trading day [29]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges announced the holiday schedule for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival [29]. Today's Reminders - On September 26, 247 bonds will be listed, 88 bonds will be issued, 139 bonds will make payments, and 344 bonds will repay principal and interest [28].