Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - For rebar, considering the current "Golden September and Silver October" period, with upstream coal - steel disputes intensifying, iron - water production rising, and the co - existence of weak real estate reality and policy expectations, in the context of relatively low valuation, the possibility of a sharp short - term decline in fundamentals is low. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - For crude oil, with Russia extending export bans on diesel and gasoline and geopolitical disturbances, there is a supply surplus pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For live pigs, as the end of the month approaches, the price shows signs of stopping the decline. Short - term long positions can be attempted, but the upside space is limited [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policy changes [5]. - For palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to factors such as increased exports and reduced production in Malaysia [6]. - For ferrosilicon, the decline space in the peak season is limited, but there is downward pressure on prices after the peak season [6]. - For coking coal, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations before the National Day [7]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For short - term treasury bonds, there are more bearish factors, but it may still fluctuate in the medium term [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate more, but the short - term upside space is limited [9]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a fluctuating view [9]. - For gold, the short - term upward momentum is not strong [10]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [11]. - For polypropylene, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or do short - term long [12]. Summary by Commodity Rebar - As of the week of September 25, production was 206.46 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from last week; factory inventory was 164.41 million tons, down 0.4%; social inventory was 471.89 million tons, down 2.75%; apparent demand was 220.44 million tons, up 4.96% [1]. Crude Oil - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day in 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day in 2050. Russia will extend export bans on diesel and gasoline to the end of the year. Its crude oil processing volume decreased to about 4.9 million barrels per day in September [2]. Live Pigs - On September 25, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 19.44 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from yesterday; the price of eggs was 8.48 yuan/kg, down 0.1% [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 38th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions was 57.04 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased 12.9% compared to the same period last month; according to Amspec, it increased 11.3% [6]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, and the daily output was 16,150 tons, both remaining unchanged from last week [6]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, up 1.8% month - on - month; the daily output of raw coal was 1.94 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.587 million tons, down 113,000 tons [7]. PTA - The social inventory of PTA was 3.2851 million tons, down 47,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 75.65%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester was around 86.68% [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose. For example, the 1 - day weighted average rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 3.76BP to 1.4749% [8]. Silver - The US GDP in the second quarter was revised up to an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [9]. Rubber - In Thailand, the price of raw material glue was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 51.05 Thai baht/kg. The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products [9]. Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid - July [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,252 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The national weekly capacity utilization rate was 82.53%, up 2.62%. The port inventory decreased by 65,600 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash was 1,283 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, up 4.18%. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, down 5.93% [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6,761 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate was 76.06%, down 0.99%. The commercial inventory decreased by 26,700 tons [12].
宁证期货今日早评-20250926
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-26 01:30