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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250926
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-26 01:29
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - Macro and Industry News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - Macro and Industry News: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - Macro and Industry News: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - Macro and Industry News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - Macro and Industry News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]