Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will undergo a sideways adjustment. The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. Zinc has support at lower levels, and the continuous decline in lead inventories supports its price. Tin will trade within a range, aluminum will experience high - level fluctuations, alumina will operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and costs [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Fundamentals - Gold: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 851.74 with a daily decline of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 858.12 with a night - session increase of 0.25%. Comex Gold 2510 rose 0.32% to 3780.50. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 21,639, and the position decreased by 18,781. The position of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 996.85. The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 5,091 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Gold (in the previous day) increased by 62,032 troy ounces [5]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 10370 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the night - session closing price was 10575.00 with a night - session increase of 1.72%. Comex Silver 2510 rose 3.07% to 45.470. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 87,243, and the position decreased by 23,112. The position of SLV Silver ETF (in the day before yesterday) decreased by 79 to 15,390.07. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4944 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver (in the previous day) increased by 406,878 troy ounces [5]. - Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 1 [8]. 2. Copper - Fundamentals - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82380 with a night - session decline of 0.40%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price decreased by 0.43% to 10,276. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 283,166, and the position increased by 66,079. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 243 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 350 tons [10]. - Macro and Industry News - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. China's refined copper imports in August were 307,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Freeport announced force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower (for copper) and about 6% lower (for gold) than the July 2025 estimate [10][12]. - Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. 3. Zinc - Fundamentals - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045 with a daily increase of 0.85%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.14% to 2922.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 48,547, and the position decreased by 10,581. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 774 tons, and the inventory of LME Zinc decreased by 600 tons [13]. - News - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6% [14]. - Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 4. Lead - Fundamentals - The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17090 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.18% to 2002.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2927, and the position increased by 1776. The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2576 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 175 tons [16]. - News - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in October cooled down [16]. - Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity is 0 [16]. 5. Tin - Fundamentals - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with a night - session increase of 0.51%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.13% to 34,315. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 9,649, and the position decreased by 2,419. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 76 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 120 tons [19]. - Macro and Industry News - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched, offering three platforms: cross - border digital payment, blockchain services, and digital assets. The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 218,000, the lowest since July [19]. - Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0 [22]. 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20765, the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2664. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 146,073, and the position was 220,640. The LME注销仓单占比 was 20.95%. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4487.40, and the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 614,000 tons [23]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2942. The trading volume was 329,000, and the position was 303,116. The domestic average price of alumina was 3026 [23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20385, the trading volume was 3950, and the position was 11,767 [23]. - Comprehensive News - Fed Governor Milan advocated cutting interest rates by 50 basis points each time to quickly reach the neutral interest rate [25]. - Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [25]. 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,450. The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,600, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 955. The red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 57 [26]. - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 [26]. - Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron production by about 1900 metal tons per month [26][27]. - Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [32].
黄金：继续创新高白银：震荡调整
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-26 01:28