化?终端需求增减不?，俄罗斯?海港?重启油价震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", and "oscillating strongly" [277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Geopolitical concerns, such as the situation in Ukraine and the potential for increased sanctions on Russia, are major drivers of price volatility. Supply - demand imbalances vary by product, with some facing oversupply issues while others have improving demand [2][3][8]. - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with some products having a weakening or strengthening bias. The market is also affected by seasonal factors, such as pre - holiday stocking and autumn maintenance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic - Crude Oil: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and supply pressure persists. Despite the expected resumption of Iraqi oil exports, the potential for increased restrictions on Russian oil by the US and the uncertainty of sanctions policies are driving price volatility. OPEC+ is accelerating production, and refinery operations are expected to decline, putting downward pressure on prices. The outlook is for weak oscillation, with attention on short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][8]. - Asphalt: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. However, its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase. The profit margin is compressed, and the supply situation has improved significantly, with the October production plan increasing by 19% year - on - year [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up prices. Although Russian fuel oil exports reached a high in September, geopolitical factors may cause a significant decline in export expectations. Demand is expected to improve, but the impact of geopolitical events on prices is likely to be short - lived [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It oscillates upward following crude oil. It faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current low valuation means it will likely follow crude oil price movements [13]. - Methanol: Inland olefin procurement continues, and the price oscillates. There is a contradiction between near - term and far - term inventory pressures, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in September - October [26]. - Urea: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and prices are under long - term pressure along the cost line. Although there are some positive expectations, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses upward price elasticity, and inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited rebound in the short - term [20][22]. - PX: Cost provides support, but the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and processing fees are under pressure. Supply remains high, and the potential for PTA factory production cuts may further affect demand [14][15]. - PTA: There are rumors of major PTA manufacturers cutting production to support prices, and processing fees have improved significantly. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention on the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15][16]. - Short - Fiber: Downstream markets are replenishing stocks before the holiday, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, following raw material prices [22][23]. - Bottle Chip: Typhoons have caused short - term plant shutdowns, and supply - demand drivers are limited. The price is expected to oscillate, following raw material prices [23][24]. - PP: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention on the support level of previous lows. Supply is increasing more than demand, and inventory pressure remains [31]. - Propylene: It follows the fluctuations of PP and oscillates in the short - term [32]. - Plastic: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with short - term support from factors such as reduced inventory pressure in the US and pre - holiday replenishment demand [30]. - Pure Benzene: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. There is difficulty in reducing inventory before the end of the year, especially in October when import pressure is high [17][19]. - Styrene: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. High inventory levels in the upstream and downstream are difficult to reduce, and the cost of pure benzene may drag down prices [19][20]. - PVC: Market sentiment has improved, and the price oscillates. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, factors such as production cuts in September and increased downstream procurement at low prices are providing some support [33]. - Caustic Soda: There are strong expectations but weak reality, and the price oscillates. The demand outlook is positive, but there are still short - term supply pressures [34]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - Period Spreads: The inter - period spreads of various products show different trends, with some narrowing and others widening. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has decreased by 20, while the 5 - 9 month spread of PP has increased by 17 [35]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipt data of different products also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 60 with a change of - 48, and the number of warehouse receipts is 55980 [36]. - Inter - Variety Spreads: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and PTA and PX, show different degrees of change, reflecting the relative price relationships between different products [37].