Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - risk sectors like AI are showing divergence. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the main idea is to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, in August, economic data continued to slow down. The "anti - involution" policy led to a price increase, but the export may face pressure. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' monetary policy statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, although the Fed's statements are less dovish than expected, if the interest - rate cut progresses, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation, and short - term price trends vary [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may fall if demand fails to recover. Iron ore prices will oscillate. Glass may be bullish in the short - term, while soda ash will continue to oscillate. The black sector may face a short - term correction but may have long - term multi - allocation value [33][36][38][39][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber is recommended to be observed after the holiday. Crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation. Methanol and urea can be considered for long positions on dips. Other chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends [55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trends of different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains vary, and corresponding trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations [80][82][84]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - Market Information: The state is studying measures to standardize copper smelting capacity construction. The total scale of public funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System has optimized the "Swap Connect" mechanism. Shangwei New Materials will be suspended for verification [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - Strategy: After a continuous rise, high - risk sectors are showing divergence. The short - term index faces uncertainty, but the long - term is bullish on dips [4]. National Debt - Market Information: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The central bank's deputy governor proposed measures to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy: Economic data in August was weak. The "anti - involution" policy affected exports. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices rose. US economic data exceeded expectations, and the market's recession expectation eased. Fed Chairman Powell's statement implied possible policy adjustments [8][9]. - Strategy: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Due to strong US employment and durable goods data, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices fell back. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import loss of domestic copper spot increased [12]. - Strategy: The Fed's hawkish statement may put short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the interest - rate cut progresses, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. Aluminum - Market Information: Domestic social inventories decreased, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - Strategy: Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, aluminum prices have strong support below as the holiday approaches [15]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose. Domestic and foreign zinc inventories decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio weakened [16][17]. - Strategy: The surplus of zinc ore has eased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector cooled. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be weak in the short - term [17]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index rose. Domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the basis changed [18]. - Strategy: The shortage of raw materials suppresses the start - up of primary smelting, while the start - up of secondary smelting recovers. Downstream demand increases, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron was stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [20]. - Strategy: Although refined nickel inventory pressure drags down nickel prices, in the long - term, there are positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [20]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. Domestic and foreign inventories changed. The supply of tin concentrate was tight, and demand was in the peak season [21]. - Strategy: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. It is recommended to observe, and the price will continue to oscillate [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - Strategy: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain the same. The spot is tight in the peak season, but the supply increase expectation suppresses the upside. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose. Due to a strike in Guinea, the supply risk of ore increased, and the import window opened [24]. - Strategy: Overseas ore disturbances may have a limited short - term impact. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to observe [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract rose. Spot prices were stable, and inventory decreased [27]. - Strategy: Domestic steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The AD2511 contract rose. The downstream is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory changes [29]. - Strategy: The peak - season characteristics are not obvious, and there is delivery pressure. The price is supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions of the main contracts changed [32]. - Strategy: The commodity market was positive, but the demand for steel was weak. If demand fails to recover, steel prices may fall [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The main contract of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis changed [34]. - Strategy: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and demand increased. Port and steel - mill inventories changed. Iron - ore prices will oscillate [35][36]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass Market Information: The glass main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [37]. - Glass Strategy: Six departments banned new flat - glass production capacity, and prices rose in the short - term. However, demand is weak. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [38]. - Soda Ash Market Information: The soda - ash main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [39]. - Soda Ash Strategy: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with limited price fluctuations. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The market was affected by policies [40][41][42]. - Strategy: The Fed's interest - rate cut and "anti - involution" sentiment affect the black sector. Although there is a short - term correction risk, there may be long - term multi - allocation value [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon Market Information: The price of industrial silicon rose. The spot price and basis changed [45]. - Industrial Silicon Strategy: The supply - demand of industrial silicon has not changed significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand and policy changes [46][47]. - Polysilicon Market Information: The price of polysilicon was stable. The spot price and basis changed [48]. - Polysilicon Strategy: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices were weak. There were factors such as expected state reserves release, changes in the position structure, and weather impacts [51]. - Strategy: In the medium - term, it is a long - term idea. In the short - term, it is recommended to observe and look for opportunities after the holiday [55]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined products rose. US inventory data changed [56]. - Strategy: It is recommended for multi - allocation, as the current price is supported by fundamentals, and there is upside potential if geopolitical premiums return [57]. Methanol - Market Information: The price of methanol changed. The basis and spread changed [58][59]. - Strategy: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has improved. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [59]. Urea - Market Information: The price of urea was stable. The basis and spread changed [60]. - Strategy: The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene rose. The basis and spread changed [61]. - Strategy: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling [62]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed, and inventory changed [63][64]. - Strategy: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [66]. - Strategy: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [67]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - Strategy: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is under pressure. It is recommended to observe [69][70]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The price of PX rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - Strategy: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to observe [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [73]. - Strategy: The market expects favorable policies. The price may oscillate upward [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [75][76]. - Strategy: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally rebounding. The inventory pressure is high. There is no obvious short - term contradiction [77]. Agricultural Products Pig - Market Information: The domestic pig price mainly fell. The supply exceeded demand before the holiday [79]. - Strategy: The spot price is falling, and the futures price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage [80]. Egg - Market Information: The national egg price was stable with a few declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [81]. - Strategy: The spot price is expected to fall, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and buy the far - month contract after a decline [82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The price of US soybeans rose slightly. The domestic soybean - meal price and inventory changed. Argentina's export tax policy affected the market [83]. - Strategy: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is loose. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [84]. Edible Oils - Market Information: The exports and production of Malaysian palm oil changed. Indonesia's palm - oil data changed. India bought a large amount of soybean oil. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85][86]. - Strategy: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected increase in demand support the oil price. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [87]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell back. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [88]. - Strategy: Affected by imports and production increases, the sugar price is expected to fall. It is recommended to observe before the National Day [89]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weak. The spot price and inventory changed [90]. - Strategy: The downstream start - up rate is weak, and there is an expected increase in production. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, but there is support below. It is recommended to observe [91].
文字早评2025-09-26：宏观金融类-20250926
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-26 01:25