研究所晨会观点精萃-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with a short - term strengthening of the upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and cautious observation is advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to rise significantly in the short - term, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with cautious long positions; precious metals are expected to be strong and volatile at high levels, with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised upwards, the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2025, were at a new low since the week of July 19, 2025, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite continued to decline. - Domestic: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, and domestic demand continued to slow down. Policy support has been strengthened, and domestic risk appetite has increased significantly. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, and cautious observation is advised [2]. 3.2 Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets of domestic steel continued a small - scale rebound on Thursday. The real - world demand continued to weaken, but there were differences among varieties. The supply remained at a high level, and the logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [4]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to be strong on Thursday. The demand remained strong, and the supply was generally at a high level. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound thinking, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [4][5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly on Thursday, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is expected to improve. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash fluctuated on Thursday. The price was affected by the downstream glass sector. In the short - term, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but in the long - term, the supply contradiction will suppress the price [7]. - Glass: The main contract of glass fluctuated on Thursday. The supply remained stable, the demand improved marginally, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The LME copper price rose and then fell overnight. Although the production of the Grasberg copper mine was affected, the复产 schedule reduced market speculation expectations [8]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rose on Thursday and then fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term to wait for new drivers. The social inventory decreased significantly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises [8]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited [9]. - Tin: The supply is tightened in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside space is under pressure [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The supply and demand both increased, and the fundamentals improved marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper - pressure range should be monitored [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. There is no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Thursday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased. The policy expectation is still strong, and it is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [11]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Tensions between Russia and NATO have intensified, and the supply risk has increased. Although the resumption of exports from the Kurdish region in northern Iraq provides some support, the long - term bearish expectation remains unchanged [12][13]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price rebounded following the crude oil price. The peak - season demand is over, and the surplus pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the extent of following the crude oil price increase [13]. - PX: The main contract fluctuated. The supply is still tight, but the polyester sector has declined recently, and it is expected to be weakly volatile with some support below [13]. - PTA: The market has expectations of joint production cuts by leading enterprises, but the basis strengthening is limited, and the demand in the peak season has fallen short. There is long - term downward pressure on the disk [14]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price remained low and volatile. The port inventory changed little, and the downstream demand was weak. There is no obvious driving force for the price to rise [14]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price decreased slightly. The terminal orders increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The subsequent upside space may be limited [14]. - Methanol: The domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The supply is in surplus in the short - term, but there may be a turning point in supply and demand in October [15]. - PP: The market price recovered slightly. The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the improvement of peak - season demand should be monitored [15][16]. - LLDPE: The LLDPE market price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the peak - season demand fell short of expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - Urea: The domestic urea market was stable. The supply is sufficient, the demand support is weak, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is significant short - term pressure [17]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The resumption of export tax in Argentina and the possible downgrade of US soybean crop ratings provided some support, but the high yield and weak export sales restricted the rebound [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. The low - valued cost of imported soybeans provides support [18]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The supply - demand situation is stable. In the future, attention should be paid to the low inventory in the production area, the price - support sentiment dominated by policies, and the impact of US soybean oil - related biodiesel policies on the market [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The soybean oil market continues to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil supply may shrink significantly in the short - term, and the high inventory will continue to decline, so the price is likely to rise [20].