中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，航运期货表现强劲-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - Domestic Macro: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - Asset Views: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - Coke: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Silicon Iron: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - Manganese Silicon: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - Glass: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - Soda Ash: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper and Alumina: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - Aluminum: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - Zinc: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - Lead: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - Nickel: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - Stainless Steel: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - Tin: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - LPG: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - Asphalt: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - Methanol: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - Urea: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - PX: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - PTA: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - Short - Fiber: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - Bottle - Chip: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - Propylene: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - PP: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - Plastic: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - PVC: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - Caustic Soda: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - Oils and Fats: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - Corn/Starch: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - Pig: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Rubber: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - Cotton: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - Sugar: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - Pulp: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - Double - Glued Paper: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - Log: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].