对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱，PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱，MEG：1-5 月差反套

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: There will be a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend remains weak. Hold short positions on a single - side basis and maintain reverse spreads for the monthly spread [1][8]. - PTA: It will rebound in the short term following oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, but the medium - term trend is still weak. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [1][9]. - MEG: It rebounds following raw materials. There is a large supply pressure in the future. Go short on a single - side basis and hold reverse spreads for the monthly spread [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On September 25, the price of PX increased. Two November Asian spot orders and one December Asian spot order were traded at $817. The estimated price of PX on September 25 was $817/ton, up $5 from September 24. Market optimism may not last long due to concerns about weak downstream demand [3]. - PTA: In mainland China, the 450 - ton Fuhai Chuang unit restarted, while the 125 - ton Ineos, 120 - ton Zhongtai units stopped. The 110 - ton Ineos and 500 - ton Hengli Huizhou units reduced their loads. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 76.8%, and the calculated PTA operating rate was around 82.7% [5]. - MEG: As of September 25, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 74.36% (down 5.02% from the previous period). The ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China was adjusted to 29.175 million tons on June 1, 2025 [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable this week, with the overall theoretical operating load at around 75%. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.3%. A polyester plant restarted, and a factory in South China temporarily stopped due to a typhoon [6]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6674 | 4678 | 4246 | 6372 | 490.6 | | Change | 72 | 52 | 12 | 76 | 8.3 | | Change Rate | 1.09% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 1.21% | 1.72% | | Monthly Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | - 42 | - 40 | - 64 | - 44 | - 1.1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | - 22 | - 36 | - 64 | - 50 | - 0.5 | | Change | - 20 | - 4 | 0 | 6 | - 0.6 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 817 | 4585 | 4311 | 608.5 | 70.54 | | Previous Day's Price | 812 | 4520 | 4305 | 606 | 69.78 | | Change | 5 | 65 | 6 | 2.5 | 0.76 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 218.92 | 174.72 | 237.89 | 67.94 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 227.29 | 189.33 | 220.08 | 40.17 | - 6.01 | | Change | - 8.38 | - 14.61 | 17.81 | 27.78 | 0 | [2] Sales Volume - On September 25, the sales volume of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with the average sales volume estimated at 180 - 190% by 3:30 pm. The sales volume of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales volume of 78% by 3:00 pm [7]. - On September 24, the sales volume of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased at the end of the trading session, with the average daily sales volume estimated to be over 150% [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: There will be a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak. Hold short positions on a single - side basis and maintain reverse spreads for the monthly spread [8]. - PTA: It will rebound in the short term following oil prices but is weak in the medium term. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Some PTA factories plan to reduce production, but the polyester operating rate has limited upward space [9]. - MEG: It rebounds following raw materials, but there is large supply pressure. Go short on a single - side basis and hold reverse spreads for the monthly spread [9].