国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250926

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - Production Data: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - Export Data: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - Market Performance: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - USDA Forecast: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - Export Sales: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - Market Performance: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Market News: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - Export Sales: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - Market Performance: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - Market Price: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - Market Performance: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - Production Data: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - Supply and Demand Forecast: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - Market Performance: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - Domestic Market: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - US Market: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - Market Performance: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - Market Performance: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - Trend: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - Spot Market: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - Market Performance: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]