Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, short - term prices are expected to remain strong due to supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking demand, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][4] - For aluminum, the price has strong downside support as downstream consumption is expected to improve with the approaching National Day holiday [5][6] - For lead, short - term prices of Shanghai lead are expected to be strong, with attention on downstream battery enterprises' holiday arrangements [7][8] - For zinc, short - term prices of Shanghai zinc are expected to be weak due to factors like TC changes and inventory trends, along with Fed's less - than - expected dovish policy [9][10] - For tin, short - term prices are expected to remain in a tight - balance and oscillatory state, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing [11][12] - For nickel, short - term prices may decline if inventory increases, but in the long - run, there is support, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [13][14][15] - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to adjust with the commodity market, and attention should be paid to supply and demand factors [17][18] - For alumina, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended, and attention should be paid to multiple policies [20][21][22] - For stainless steel, short - term prices are expected to remain oscillatory due to support from steel mills and weak consumption [24][25] - For cast aluminum alloy, prices are under upward pressure and supported by scrap aluminum costs [27][28] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: US employment and durable goods data were strong, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, and domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons. The import loss of domestic copper spot widened to 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference expanded to 3,100 yuan/ton [3] - Strategy Viewpoint: The Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the interest - rate cut progresses, sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Copper raw - material supply tightness is expected to intensify, and short - term copper prices are expected to remain strong [4] Aluminum - Market Information: Domestic social inventory decreased, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 51.6 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 61.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.7 tons to 12.3 tons [5] - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the Fed's stance is not as dovish as expected, the interest - rate cut is not expected to significantly suppress the market. Aluminum's downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but with the approaching National Day holiday, consumption is expected to improve, and the price has strong downside support [6] Lead - Market Information: Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,091 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose 3.5 to 2,004 dollars/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 4.22 tons [7] - Strategy Viewpoint: On the primary side, raw - material shortages suppress smelting. On the secondary side, profits improve, and smelting starts to pick up. Downstream demand is rising, and short - term Shanghai lead is expected to be strong [8] Zinc - Market Information: Shanghai zinc index rose 0.84% to 22,050 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose 43 to 2,925 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased to 15.04 tons [9] - Strategy Viewpoint: The surplus of zinc ore has eased. The Fed's less - than - expected dovish policy cools the non - ferrous metal sector, and short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak [10] Tin - Market Information: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin's main contract rose 0.76%. Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Demand in traditional sectors is weak, but it has improved marginally in the peak season [11] - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Tin prices are expected to remain oscillatory, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [12] Nickel - Market Information: On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose 1.25%. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable, and the MHP coefficient price rose slightly [13] - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short - term, high refined - nickel inventory may drag down prices, but in the long - run, there is support. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [14][15] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC index rose 0.69%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract rose 1.59% [17] - Strategy Viewpoint: Production increased by 0.8% this week, and inventory decreased by 0.5%. The price is expected to adjust with the commodity market, and attention should be paid to supply and demand factors [18] Alumina - Market Information: On September 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.17%. A strike in Guinea increased ore supply risks. The import window opened [20] - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term impact of the strike may be limited, but it needs continuous monitoring. The over - capacity pattern is hard to change in the short - term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [21][22] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel rose 0.27%. Spot prices in some markets changed slightly, and social inventory decreased by 0.26% [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: Steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but consumption has not improved significantly. Short - term prices are expected to remain oscillatory [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: As of Thursday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rose 0.32%. Downstream stocking increased before the holiday, and total inventory decreased [27] - Strategy Viewpoint: The downstream is transitioning from the off - season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. There is delivery pressure, and prices are under upward pressure with cost support [28]
有色金属日报-20250926
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-26 01:26