十一期间风险提示和节后策略建议

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall funds are favorable, and tend to enter the market through fund channels during the bull market consolidation phase. The future stock index market will revolve around "anti - involution" and technology, with corresponding opportunities in the CSI 500 for "anti - involution" and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 for technology [5][11][40]. - The RMB appreciation momentum is limited, with short - term expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.10 - 7.20. The release of pre - holiday settlement demand supports the RMB, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been priced in advance, and the resilience of employment and consumption limits the downside space of the US dollar [14][17]. - For the container shipping index, the valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and the November and December contracts need to focus on the rhythm of price increase announcements and actual implementation. The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation difference [21][24][29]. - Seasonally, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in stock indices and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, both of which recover after the holiday. In terms of commodities, it is advisable to hold gold during the holiday, and pay attention to coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors one month after the holiday. In terms of trends, overseas inflation expectations are dominated by currency, benefiting gold, and domestic focus is on supply - side policies, with opportunities in black sectors, new energy metals, chemicals, and pigs [36][40]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomics - During the National Day holiday from October 1st to 8th, there are 6 overseas trading days. Key events and data at home and abroad around the holiday include China's September official PMI, the US government's temporary expenditure bill, and various countries' employment and economic data [2][3]. - Domestically, pay attention to high - frequency economic data such as consumption, travel, and real estate sales during the holiday. In the US, there are risks of government shutdown and weakening employment data, which increase the expectation of interest rate cuts [4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, the fund positions showed a seasonal decline, but the share of equity funds increased by 123 billion this month. The share of theme and industry ETFs continued to rise, risk appetite continued to improve, and the margin trading balance reached a new high, but its influence weakened marginally [5]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciation momentum is limited. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.10 - 7.20. Pre - holiday settlement demand supports the RMB, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been priced in advance, and the resilience of employment and consumption limits the downside space of the US dollar. The on - shore swap points have recently risen, partially hedging the excessive RMB appreciation momentum. Attention should be paid to the impact of US economic data and policies during and after the holiday [14][17]. Container Shipping Index - October contract: The valuation is becoming clearer. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be between 1000 - 1050 points. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week rises by $500/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of about $1400/1500/1900/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 - 1150 points on the SCFIS. If the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [21]. - December contract: It is far from delivery. First, trade the price increase expectation (announcement of the November price increase letter around mid - October), then the actual implementation of the price increase letter, then trade the price increase expectation again (announcement of the December price increase letter around mid - November), and finally trade the actual implementation of the price increase letter until delivery. Due to frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [24]. - February 2026 contract: There may be a large expectation difference. If the "price high area" of "signing to support prices" is postponed to mid - January 2026, the February contract may be higher than the December contract [29]. Strategy - Seasonally, stock indices may adjust before the holiday and rise after the holiday, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after the holiday. For commodities, holding gold during the holiday has low risk, and pay attention to coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors one month after the holiday [36]. - In terms of trends, overseas inflation expectations are dominated by currency, benefiting gold, and domestic focus is on supply - side policies, with opportunities in black sectors, new energy metals, chemicals, and pigs [40].