渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.26）-20250926

Macro and Strategy Research - External demand faces marginal decline pressure due to high base effects and demand front-loading from previous "export grabbing/transshipment effects," leading to uncertainty in the trade environment, making exports less effective as a fundamental support [2][3] - Domestic market shows a strong supply but weak demand characteristic, with fluctuations in consumption and investment data, indicating that the economic recovery foundation still needs further consolidation [2] - The overall liquidity in the domestic market is expected to remain abundant, despite the potential for short-term incremental measures being limited due to the emphasis on the implementation of existing policies [3] Capital Market Liquidity - In the fourth quarter, long-term funds represented by insurance are expected to continue flowing into the market, aided by the effectiveness of public fund reforms, which will help attract the migration of resident assets [3] - A-share market liquidity is anticipated to continue its incremental process, with foreign capital likely increasing its allocation to A-shares during the interest rate cut cycle [3] A-share Market Outlook - Market valuation repair is nearly complete, and under the policy guidance to "consolidate the capital market's recovery," liquidity is expected to maintain an incremental trend [3] - The core focus will shift to the flow of incremental funds, with performance factors remaining a crucial consideration for fund allocation, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to lead structural market trends [3] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the TMT sector due to the promotion of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives and increased capital expenditure by domestic cloud vendors [4] - The power equipment industry presents investment opportunities driven by high overseas demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [4] - The pharmaceutical and non-ferrous metals industries are highlighted for investment opportunities due to significant competitive advantages in domestic innovative drugs and the anticipated acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - The service consumption sector is expected to see investment opportunities as the "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to further improve basic security systems [4]