沥青：出货放缓，现货承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The asphalt market shows signs of slow shipment and pressured spot prices. The production has increased, while the inventory situation varies by region, with some areas experiencing inventory accumulation and others seeing inventory reduction [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.42%, and the overnight closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume was 175,377 lots with an increase of 22,435 lots, and the open interest was 197,649 lots with a decrease of 19,248 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.44%, and the overnight closing price was 3,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 53,804 lots with an increase of 2,649 lots, and the open interest was 88,522 lots with a decrease of 1,800 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 55,980 lots with no change [1]. - Spreads: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan compared to the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 55 yuan/ton with no change. The Shandong - South China spread was 0 with no change, and the East China - South China spread was 60 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Spot Market: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,560 yuan/ton with no change. The refinery operating rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66% compared to the previous data. The refinery inventory rate was 27.11%, an increase of 0.37% [1]. Trend Strength - The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. Market Information - Production: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 699,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons (1.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons (43.8%). The cumulative production from January to September was 2.3536 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 271.1 million tons (13.0%) [15]. - Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 704,000 tons, a 0.9% increase from September 22. The inventory in South China increased significantly due to typhoon - affected shipments and stagnant downstream demand. The total inventory of 104 social warehouses was 1.541 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from September 22. The social inventory in East China decreased significantly due to low inbound volume, pre - holiday stocking demand, and low prices [15].