贵属策略日报：美国经济数据强于预期，贵?属?幅调整-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently in an upward trend, with low crowding levels indicated by volatility and other indicators, and overall stable price movements. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday, external market volatility may increase, and investors are advised to control their positions [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core positive driving force for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment have cleared the way for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed Watch shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairperson, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to be substantially strengthened, and there is room for imagination regarding future interest rate cuts. The increased risk to the Fed's independence also reinforces the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit, providing greater flexibility for the gold price. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is maintained at $4000 [3][6]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant downward trend, and the soft - landing trade dominates the market, the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to rise with gold and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US economic data in Q2 and recent weeks were stronger than expected. The annualized final value of real GDP in Q2 increased by 3.8% quarter - on - quarter (expected 3.3%, revised value 3.3%); the GDP price index in Q2 increased by 2.1% (expected 2%, revised value 2%); real personal consumption expenditure in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter (expected 1.7%, revised value 1.6%) [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 218,000 (expected 235,000, previous value revised from 231,000 to 232,000); the four - week average was 237,500 (previous value 240,000). The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 1,926,000 (expected 1,935,000, previous value 1,920,000) [2]. - The preliminary value of durable goods orders in the US in August increased by 2.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.5%, July's final value revised from - 2.8% to - 2.7%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding national defense increased by 1.9% month - on - month (July's final value revised from - 2.5% to - 2.3%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.4% month - on - month (expected flat, July's final value - 2.5%) [2]. - Fed's new governor Milan publicly advocated that the Fed should immediately take more aggressive interest - rate cut measures to avoid harming the US economy. He warned that the current policy interest rate of the Fed is far higher than his estimated "neutral" level and is in a "highly restrictive" range, making the economy more vulnerable to downward shocks. The Fed "can achieve the goal through a very short - term series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts" [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, precious metal prices adjusted slightly. The better - than - expected US economic data led to a short - term strong rebound in the US dollar index, causing precious metals to decline slightly under pressure. The current upward trend of precious metals remains intact [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive factor for gold. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations will drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson and the potential weakening of the Fed's independence will provide greater flexibility for the gold price, maintaining the target of $4000 for US - dollar - denominated gold this year [3][6]. - Silver follows the trend of gold. With the US economy showing a soft - landing trend, the suppression of silver's elasticity has eased, and silver prices are expected to rise with gold [6]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2249.48, up 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2524.42, up 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2269.30, up 1.07% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 25, 2025, was 2995.52, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day increase of 3.33%, a 1 - month increase of 9.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.40% [48].