铜：美元持续回升，限制价格上涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. The strong US economic data increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82,380 with a decrease of 0.40%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 10,276 with a decrease of 0.43% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 334,893, an increase of 283,166 from the previous day, and the open interest was 238,523, an increase of 66,079. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 42,366, a decrease of 4,722, and the open interest was 296,000, an increase of 6,048 [1]. - Futures Inventory: The Shanghai copper inventory was 27,662, an increase of 243, and the LME copper inventory was 144,425, a decrease of 350. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.89%, a decrease of 0.24% [1]. - Spreads: The LME copper spread decreased by 0.18, the保税 - zone warehouse receipt premium decreased by 4, and the Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 1,300. Many other spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro: The US second - quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path [1]. - Industry: In August, China's refined copper imports were 30.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Congo was the largest supplier. Freeport declared force majeure at its Indonesian Grasberg mine, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold than the July 2025 estimate [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]