FICC日报：船司下半月集体挺价，关注最终实际落地情况-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price depending on the actual price increase in the second half of October. - The December contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the driving force is relatively strong before the continuous price - increase expectations are falsified. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upwards [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online Quotations: Different shipping alliances and companies have various price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in Week 42; HPL announced price hikes in the second half of October and November. Some companies like CMA also attempted to raise prices in the second half of October [1][2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Israel attacked Sana'a, Yemen, which may impact the shipping market [3]. - Capacity: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 272,600 TEU, and in November it was 285,200 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - October Contracts: The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline, and the final settlement price depends on the actual price increase in the second half of October [4]. - December Contracts: The trading of the December contract focuses on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter and shipping companies' preparations for long - term agreements, the freight rate is expected to be at a high level. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfers may put pressure on European line prices [5]. 3.2 Strategy - Unilateral: Go short on the October contract and expect the December contract to be oscillating upwards. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. 3.3 Data on Contracts and Freight Rates - As of September 25, 2025, the total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 70,242 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as EC2602 at 1,696.20, EC2604 at 1,285.10, etc. - On September 19th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1,052 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 1,636 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2,557 US dollars/FEU. On September 15th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1,254.92 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,193.64 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 935,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7].