新能源及有色金属日报：冶炼厂节前随行就市出货，铅价仍维持震荡格局-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a cautious and moderately bullish strategy [4] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the approaching National Day holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range suggested between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 40.08 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium was - 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, while the SMM Henan and Tianjin lead prices remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 25, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,085 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,256 lots, an increase of 2,927 lots from the previous day, and the position was 62,847 lots, an increase of 1,776 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,145 yuan/ton and a low of 17,080 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract opened at 17,100 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On September 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,300 tons from the same period last week. As of September 25, the LME lead inventory was 219,550 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The lead price in Henan remained unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of smelters in Henan was low, and there were few scattered quotes. The quotes of holders were at a discount of 130 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract. In Hunan, the quotes of branded lead smelters were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and there was some rigid - demand trading. Some smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. In Guangdong, the quotes of lead smelters changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and a small amount of lead ingots for holiday delivery was pre - sold. Downstream rigid - demand restocking before the holiday was not completed. Smelters sold goods according to the market and actively pre - sold holiday production to avoid post - holiday inventory accumulation. The trading volume in the spot market was fair [2]