丙烯日报：丙烯供应回升，但下游备货需求仍欠佳-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - position spread at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of upstream devices drives up the operating rate. Two major PDH devices in Shandong are expected to restart soon, and the new production capacity in Shandong is ramping up, increasing the supply pressure in the propylene market. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling provides short - term bottom support for demand, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The stockpiling demand is poor, mainly for low - price and just - in - time procurement. The restart drive of major downstream industries is insufficient. On the cost side, due to the escalation of geopolitical situations and possible upgrades of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, the international oil price rebounds, and the external propane price is firm, providing support for the propylene cost [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures such as the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][32] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]