油脂日报：菜油库存持续走低，油脂价格震荡-20250926

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated strongly yesterday. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in China in August was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. From January to August, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Domestic spot traders and oil mills are holding firm on prices. The basis of rapeseed oil has steadily increased, and the futures price of rapeseed oil is also strong. The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for rapeseed oil, which provides some support for rapeseed oil [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,222 yuan/ton, a change of +96 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.05% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,192 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.14% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,142 yuan/ton, a change of +221 yuan from the previous day, a change of +2.23% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,140 yuan/ton, a change of +170 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.90%. The spot basis was P01 + -82 yuan, a change of +74 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370 yuan/ton, a change of +90 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +1.09%. The spot basis was Y01 + 178 yuan, a change of -2 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,330 yuan/ton, a change of +190 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.87%. The spot basis was OI01 + 188 yuan, a change of -31 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains for nearly three days, the soybean export volume reached the highest level in at least seven years. The total soybean shipment volume in the 2024/25 season reached 10.5 million tons [2] - The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Intelligence used unmanned attack boats to attack the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse on the Black Sea coast. The attack paralyzed the oil loading facilities and terminal equipment near the Novorossiysk port, with daily crude oil exports of about 2 million barrels [2] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, setting a new record for the two-day purchase volume. These soybean oil orders will be shipped in batches from October to March of the following year at a purchase price of $1,100 to $1,120 per ton [2] - The estimated soybean output in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.94 million tons, down from the August forecast of 22.05 million tons. The estimated soybean planting area is about 5.77 million hectares, down from the August forecast of 5.8 million hectares [2]