氯碱日报：港口库存小幅去化，关注出口动态-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price fell below the previous low, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was insufficient. The spot price fluctuated weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the festival. - The domestic demand is weak. The inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The start - up time of demand in Northeast China should be followed up. - Urea production remains at a high level. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating. The port inventory is decreasing. The export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report presents the market prices of small - granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16][18] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21][24] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes the production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based production capacity utilization rates [25][26][30] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents the FOB prices of small - granular urea in the Baltic Sea and large - granular urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - granular urea in China, the price differences between them, and the export profit and the disk export profit [32][34][40][42][45] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52][53] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume, and trading volume of the main contract [56][59][62]