液化石油气日报：PDH装置利润连续下滑，需求增长动力不足-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the PG futures market has shown an oscillating downward trend, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization, indicating that the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged and market expectations are weak. The domestic spot prices have shown mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, while domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Market Analysis - On September 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4540 - 4600; Northeast market, 4000 - 4260; North China market, 4400 - 4650; East China market, 4260 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4540 - 4700; Northwest market, 4400 - 4500; South China market, 4498 - 4670 [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 596 dollars/ton and 583 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4666 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4565 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 589 dollars/ton and 576 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4612 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4510 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [1] - The PG futures market has been oscillating downward recently, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization. The domestic spot prices showed mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, and domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors as PDH device profits have been continuously declining and fallen back into the negative range. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is strong resistance above the market. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]