新能源及有色金属日报：节前备货带动去库不改累库预期-20250926

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Pre - holiday downstream stocking and price decline boost spot market transactions, leading to a drop in social inventory, but the spot discount is hard to repair. The overseas and domestic markets deviate, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing, increasing the warehouse receipt risk and supporting prices, while the domestic market still has supply - side pressure and a cumulative inventory expectation despite the good consumption in the traditional peak season [4]. Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.64 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 60 yuan/ton to 21,890 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On September 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,935 yuan/ton and closes at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 158,280 lots, and the open interest is 131,286 lots. The highest price is 22,060 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,890 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 150,400 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day [3].