Huachuang Securities·2025-09-26 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price of 79.31 CNY, compared to the current price of 70.15 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - The core business shows signs of recovery, with the duty-free leader demonstrating operational resilience. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 28.151 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.6 billion CNY, down 20.81% year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported main revenue of 11.405 billion CNY, a decline of 8.45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the quarter was 662 million CNY, down 32.21% year-on-year [2][4]. - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2027 shows a gradual recovery, with expected revenues of 56.474 billion CNY in 2024, 57.136 billion CNY in 2025, 61.330 billion CNY in 2026, and 65.822 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% in 2025 and 7.3% in 2026 and 2027 [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 4.688 billion CNY in 2025, 5.268 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.970 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -36.4% in 2024 and 9.9% in 2025 [4][9]. Business Development Summary - The core duty-free business is facing challenges, particularly in the Hainan offshore duty-free market, which saw sales drop by 9.2% year-on-year to 16.76 billion CNY, primarily due to a 26.2% decline in shopping visits. However, the average transaction value increased by 23.0% to 6,754 CNY, indicating effective strategies to enhance customer spending [4][8]. - The company is actively expanding its airport and port duty-free network, successfully winning bids for the operation rights of several key locations, including Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport [4][8]. - The company has made significant strides in diversifying its operations, with a notable increase in city duty-free store licenses from 7 to 13, and has entered the Vietnamese market with new stores [4][8]. Competitive Position and Outlook - As the only state-authorized enterprise to conduct duty-free business nationwide, the company holds a strong competitive position, owning nearly 50% of the 28 city duty-free stores in China. The market share in Hainan has increased by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year [4][8]. - The digital transformation has been effective, with membership surpassing 45 million and online revenue accounting for 28.5% of total revenue. Although short-term performance may remain under pressure, the recovery of consumer confidence and international travel is expected to boost duty-free consumption demand [4][8].