铜周报：美联储降息刺激，铜价震荡偏强-20250926

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment is generally optimistic as the Fed is about to cut interest rates. Although the economic data in China in August was not as expected and the impact of tariffs gradually emerged, the non - ferrous metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rising. Copper prices were volatile and showed a slightly stronger trend. Technically, the short - term trend of copper prices is strong, and the spot demand for Shanghai copper is expected to gradually improve at the end of the off - season, despite the high inventory of US copper and insufficient medium - term demand [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - Market News: On September 14 local time, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, the market sentiment is optimistic. After the sharp rise of non - ferrous metals on Friday, most of them fell in the night session. The economic data in China in August was not as expected, the unemployment rate rose slightly, and the impact of tariffs gradually emerged. The RMB rose slightly and the US dollar fell, and the non - ferrous metals market bottomed out and rose, with Shanghai copper, London copper, and international copper rising, while domestic spot copper falling [1]. - Market Data: The closing price of Shanghai copper today was 80940, and the spot price was 81070. The spot was at a premium of 130 points over the futures, and the spot basis premium dropped to 80 points with poor spot trading. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 73 US dollars this week, and the foreign spot demand was average. The inventory of US copper continued to rise significantly this week, the inventory of London copper decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 53.5 US dollars, and the domestic spot demand was average. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices rose to 8.05, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 262 points, with the foreign price - to - price ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1]. - Technical Analysis: London copper rose slightly today and was trading around 10080 US dollars. Shanghai copper opened low and moved high with a slight decline, closing at 80940, and the technical form was strong. The trading volume of Shanghai copper increased and the positions decreased slightly, and the market sentiment was strong [2]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The inventory of US copper is extremely high with insufficient medium - term demand. It is the end of the off - season for Shanghai copper, and the spot demand is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Market Indicator Monitoring: From September 9th to September 15th, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly, the spot premium and discount changed significantly, the Yangshan copper premium showed a downward trend, the LME copper - futures and spot spread fluctuated, and the main contract Shanghai - London ratio was around 8.04 - 8.05 [3].