Section 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][5][6] Section 2: Core Views - For the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday, both the 2601 contract of coking coal and coke are expected to be in a volatile state, with an intraday bias towards being volatile and strong [1] - Coking coal's spot price has increased, and its production has risen compared to the previous week but is lower than the same period last year. Import volume has returned to a high level this year, and demand is basically flat. With the influence of pre - holiday restocking and end - of - month production cuts, the main contract will maintain high - level volatility [5] - Coke's spot price is stable or slightly decreased. With rising raw material prices, pre - holiday restocking demand, and the first round of price increases, the futures will run in a range, and the future trend depends on new policies [6] Section 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1280.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5.79% [5] - Supply: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines across the country last week was 76.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 tons, but 3.3 tons lower than the same period last year. The number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the 288 Port last week returned to a high level this year, with a daily clearance of about 1300 - 1400 vehicles [5] - Demand: The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills is 113.37 tons, with a week - on - week basic flat [5] - Market Outlook: The current fundamentals have limited support, but pre - holiday restocking and end - of - month production cuts support the price, driving the main contract to maintain high - level volatility [5] Coke - Price: The latest quotation of the flat - closing price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.33% [6] - Market Situation: With thin profits for coking enterprises, rising raw material prices, and pre - holiday restocking demand, the first round of price increases has been launched, and the spot atmosphere is optimistic [6] - Market Outlook: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, the market is wait - and - see, the futures will run in a range, and the future trend depends on new policies [6]
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250926
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-26 02:17