黑色板块日报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The increase in apparent demand is mainly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream, and may not represent a trend. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to maintain a shock pattern [3]. - Iron Ore: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, with an overall under - expected effect and a negative impact on raw materials. The supply is at a high level, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the demand for iron ore. The upward trend of the 01 contract needs further observation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: The output of rebar increased from a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The total output of the five major varieties increased by 9.5 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory increased by 3.0 tons, the social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 9.1 tons. The apparent demand increased by 23.73 tons [3]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above. Currently, the prices are near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the opening of the Bollinger Band is narrowing, with a high probability of maintaining a shock [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can try to go long at low prices with a light position [3]. II. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The profitability of sample steel mills has adjusted. The iron ore output of 247 steel mills was 2.41 million tons last week, an increase of 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the demand [6]. - Technical Analysis: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Wait patiently for a full adjustment and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [6]. III. Industry News - Some coke enterprises in Changzhi and Xingtai plan to adjust coke prices, with increases ranging from 50 - 85 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on September 26 [8]. - As of the week of September 25, the output of rebar increased from a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks [8]. - As of September 25, the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry remained unchanged from the previous two weeks, with a daily output of 160,200 tons. The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.55% week - on - week, reaching a new low since the end of January [8]. - The EU Commission plans to impose additional tariffs of 25% - 50% on Chinese steel and related products in the next few weeks [9].