中泰期货晨会纪要-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Stock Index Futures: Consider buying on dips and adopting a range - trading strategy. The A - share market shows divergence, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term. The probability of central bank easing is increasing [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Continue to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term, and maintain the idea of buying bonds on dips, betting on future monetary policy easing [10]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the demand of the finished steel market during "Golden September and Silver October" and the inventory replenishment rhythm before the National Day [12]. - Ferroalloys: For manganese silicon, the mid - to long - term strategy is to go short on rallies, and the same for silicon iron. The price fluctuations are mainly affected by the sentiment of coking coal in the black sector [13]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, observe the sentiment of the industrial chain in the short term and then turn bearish; for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [14]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see at high levels; for alumina, consider shorting on rallies; for zinc, the price is expected to decline after the macro impact fades; for lithium carbonate, it will fluctuate widely; for industrial silicon, consider buying on dips for far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it will maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - Agricultural Products: For cotton, be cautious when shorting on rallies; for sugar, maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term; for eggs, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds; for apples, consider buying on dips with a light position; for corn, sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract; for dates, wait and see; for hogs, the short - term price will be weak and short on rallies for near - month contracts [23][25][26]. - Energy and Chemicals: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; for fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price; for plastics, it will be weak and fluctuate; for rubber, be cautious in holding positions; for methanol, it will be in a relatively strong shock; for caustic soda, it will fluctuate; for asphalt, it will follow the oil price; for liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a bearish view in the long - term; for paper pulp, it will fluctuate; for urea, it will fluctuate; for synthetic rubber, be cautious in holding positions [31][35][36]. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - finance - Stock Index Futures: A - share market shows divergence, with the ChiNext Index hitting new stage highs. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 index futures are in different trends. The overall market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips and trade in a range. The A - share trading volume is 2.39 trillion yuan, and the market capitalization of the technology sector accounts for over 1/4. Long - term funds' holding of A - share market value has increased by 32% compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The end - of - quarter capital market is balanced, with capital interest rates rising slightly. It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and buy bonds on dips. The scale of public funds in China has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, and the scale of stock - type funds has increased significantly in August [10]. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply is gradually recovering, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions are expected to ferment again. The price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory replenishment [12]. - Ferroalloys: The new production capacity of manganese silicon is the main factor affecting the long - term market. For silicon iron, it is in an oversupply situation. The prices of both are affected by the sentiment of coking coal in the black sector [13]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to observe in the short term and then turn bearish. Glass prices are rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum has low - level inventory replenishment before the festival, but the overall demand is insufficient. Alumina has a surplus pressure, with high production and high supply, and the price is expected to decline [15]. - Zinc: The domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and the smelter's production resumption rhythm is accelerating. The zinc price is expected to decline after the macro impact fades [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term de - stocking supports the price, and it will fluctuate widely without obvious driving factors [19]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be strong in a range, and it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts. Polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress and will maintain a wide - range shock [20]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting on rallies, and pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and international trade tariffs [23]. - Sugar: The domestic and international sugar supply is in a surplus situation. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term and pay attention to the change of the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil and the domestic sugar price policy in India [25]. - Eggs: The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the capacity reduction situation [26]. - Apples: The new - season opening price is expected to be high. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [27]. - Corn: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and pay attention to the purchasing enthusiasm of traders and downstream enterprises [28]. - Dates: The market price is stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - Hogs: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak season. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [31]. - Fuel Oil: Its price will follow the oil price [32]. - Plastics: The supply pressure is large, and it will be weak and fluctuate. It may have a short - term rebound and then return to the fundamental logic [35]. - Rubber: Affected by extreme weather, the raw material price in China has strengthened. It is recommended to be cautious in holding positions [36]. - Methanol: The port inventory pressure is large, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is recommended to trade in a relatively strong shock range [36]. - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals are relatively weak, and it will fluctuate [38]. - Asphalt: It will follow the oil price, and the current demand is in the peak season [38]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The supply is abundant, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the long - term [42]. - Paper Pulp: The spot fundamentals are weak, but the external market is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot transactions [43]. - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to trade in a shock range and pay attention to export and procurement news [44]. - Synthetic Rubber: The main contract price has declined, and it is recommended to be cautious in holding positions before the festival [45].