宝城期货动力煤早报-20250926

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the short - term price of domestic thermal coal will maintain a relatively strong trend. This is because the supply of domestic thermal coal has gradually stabilized after the "anti - involution" capacity verification, and the supply - side pressure has been significantly alleviated compared to the previous two years. Additionally, the fundamental outlook for thermal coal before the National Day is favorable [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - As of September 17, 2025, the quoted price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 689 yuan/ton, showing a week - on - week increase [4]. Viewpoint on Thermal Coal - Intraday and Medium - term View: The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply of domestic thermal coal has become stable after the capacity verification, and the supply - side pressure has eased. Coupled with the good fundamental expectations before the National Day, the short - term coal price is expected to be strong [4].