宝城期货股指期货早报-20250926

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of the stock index is expected to be wide - range oscillations, while the medium - term trend is upward. The current main trading logic of the stock market lies in the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Catalog 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term funds' profit - taking willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 2. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and consolidated. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 239.18 billion yuan, an increase of 4.46 billion yuan from the previous day. The current main trading logic of the stock market is the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. With the significant rise in the valuation end, especially when the index rebounds to near the previous high, the profit - taking demand of profitable funds increases. In the medium - and long - term, the expectation of policy benefits and the long - term net inflow trend of funds are the driving forces for the upward movement of the stock index. The fermentation of policy - favorable expectations depends on the October important meeting. Signs of residents' wealth allocation to the equity market are emerging, as shown by the margin balance exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan and the significant year - on - year increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August. Due to the index approaching the previous high and the approaching long holiday, the stock index is expected to be in wide - range oscillations in the short term [5]