四大维度：地产何时能见底？

Core Insights - The report analyzes the real estate market, focusing on supply, demand, resident debt, housing prices, and policy recommendations [2] Group 1: Real Estate Supply - New construction has significantly decreased, while inventory remains high, indicating that existing housing stock is sufficient, though structural shortages still exist [2] Group 2: Real Estate Demand - Rigid demand is decreasing, with improvement demand dominating, investment demand turning negative, and demolition demand remaining stable. By 2035, commodity housing sales may decline by one-third to 650 million square meters [2] Group 3: Resident Debt - Existing debt pressure is normal, and flow pressure is expected to return to normal levels within 1-2 years [2] Group 4: Housing Prices - Housing prices, viewed from both residential and investment perspectives, are at relatively high levels globally. A further adjustment over the next 1-2 years may bring prices down to historically low levels [2] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - A multi-faceted approach is suggested, including strict control of new supply, resolution of existing inventory, quality improvement, enhanced urban renewal, and unlocking potential for rigid improvement demand to alleviate resident debt pressure [2]