燃料油9月报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - sulfur fuel oil market remains generally loose in supply and demand, with high inventories suppressing prices. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks specific drivers, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is less than expected [4][9][60]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to expect the FU main contract to be in a short - term strong - side volatile state, the LU near - month contract to fluctuate within a range following crude oil, pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between LU01 and FU01, and sell out - of - the - money call options of FU01 [5][60][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the high - sulfur fuel oil had positive drivers on both the supply and demand sides, with the high - sulfur crack steadily rising by about $1.8 per barrel to around - $3.2 per barrel. The low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuated weakly. The RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery malfunctioned again at the end of August, increasing the near - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil [3][9]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The high - sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia are relatively stable, and the inventories in Singapore and China are still high. The expected increase in feedstock demand is not enough to quickly digest the existing inventories, so the overall supply - demand in the fuel oil market remains loose. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil in the fourth quarter is less than expected, with the Nigerian RFCC unit expected to return early and some refineries in China still restricted in supply [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Expect a volatile market. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding LU01 - FU01. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options of FU01 [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the high - sulfur fuel oil had positive drivers on both supply and demand sides, but high inventories restricted the market. The low - sulfur fuel oil was weakly volatile, with increased near - term supply pressure and relatively abundant low - sulfur component supply [9]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - High - sulfur fuel oil supply: - Russia: Despite continuous attacks on energy facilities, the recovery is fast, and fuel oil exports have increased. For example, in August, Russia's seaborne petroleum product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month, and in September, the fuel oil flow increased by 22% month - on - month [18][20]. - Mexico: High - sulfur exports are continuously falling due to the commissioning of secondary units in Olmeca and Tula refineries [22]. - Middle East: High - sulfur exports have increased after the peak power - generation demand season. In August, high - sulfur exports reached the highest level this year, but Iran's exports are still restricted [26]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply: - Nigeria: The RFCC unit of Dangote refinery is still unstable in operation, and low - sulfur exports are increasing. The Harcourt refinery has been closed for two consecutive months, and the Warri refinery has no crude oil quota [45][47]. - Middle East: The Al - Zour refinery maintains high - level low - sulfur exports under stable operation. South Sudan's low - sulfur heavy feedstock exports to the Pan - Singapore region are expected to increase due to the conflict with the UAE [47][48]. - China: The third batch of low - sulfur fuel oil quotas has been issued, and the overall market supply is relatively abundant [50]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - High - sulfur fuel oil demand: - Marine fuel bunkering demand: It provides stable support. As of mid - September 2025, the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers has increased. In August 2025, high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in Singapore decreased slightly month - on - month but was still at a high year - on - year level [34]. - Feedstock demand: Supported by the low cost of high - sulfur cracking decline and tax reform, but the support is not obvious. Import demand has been low since July and August [37][39]. - Power - generation demand: It has completely subsided. In Egypt and the Middle East, high - sulfur power - generation demand has decreased significantly [41][43]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil demand: - Marine fuel bunkering demand: It is stable without specific drivers. In August 2025, low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in Singapore increased slightly month - on - month [49]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - No specific content provided in the given materials. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Future Outlook: - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply from Russia, the Middle East, and Mexico shows different trends. Demand from power - generation has disappeared, and feedstock demand support is weak. High - level inventories suppress prices, and attention should be paid to new warrant generation and inventory digestion [60]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot window transaction price is low, and the supply continues to increase. The conflict between South Sudan and the UAE may change the logistics of low - sulfur heavy feedstock, and the Nigerian RFCC unit's operation is unstable. The overall supply in the Chinese market is abundant [60]. - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: The FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate within a range following crude oil. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between LU01 and FU01. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options of FU01 [60][61].