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煤炭进口数据拆解:25年8月进口煤继续复苏,关注海外价格回升趋势
Shanxi Securities·2025-09-26 02:57

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume continues to show a slowing contraction trend, with a cumulative decrease of 12.2% from January to August 2025. However, the negative growth rate has been marginally slowing down, with August showing a year-on-year decline of 6.76% but a month-on-month increase of 20.02% [3][4]. - The average import price for all coal types in August was $66 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline, with a slight month-on-month decrease of $0.84 per ton [3][4]. - Domestic coal production remains in a contraction phase year-on-year, but there is a slight month-on-month increase. The domestic supply gap continues to support import demand [4]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The report highlights that all coal types experienced positive month-on-month growth in August, although thermal coal and coking coal maintained negative year-on-year growth. The increase in thermal coal imports primarily came from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia, while coking coal imports were mainly from Mongolia [3][4]. Price Trends - The report notes that the import price for coking coal saw a slight month-on-month increase, while all other coal types experienced significant year-on-year price declines [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the price gap between domestic and imported coal may continue to drive import volumes, especially if domestic supply remains constrained. The anticipated demand during the "golden September and silver October" period is expected to support price rebounds if supply disruptions occur [5].