工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to potential disturbances on the supply - side, the industrial silicon futures market has strengthened again. Considering that the factors of sentiment and supply disturbances have not been completely eliminated, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to increase steadily, while the demand shows different trends in different sectors. The overall low - level inventory - building willingness of downstream industries is insufficient [1]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is in a high - level consolidation state. Given the high raw material inventory of downstream industries, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and the pressure to further raise the spot price is relatively large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.09% to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.39% to 9,055 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the production in the southwest region has increased due to the low - cost electricity in the wet season. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production, bringing some incremental demand; an organic silicon plant has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, but the supply pressure has rebounded recently; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - Investment Strategy: Adopt range trading and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options. Continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: N - type dense material rose 0.10% to 51.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material rose 0.10% to 52.55 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 50 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon rose 2.02% to 50.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.03% to 51,365 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with an expected slight increase in production to about 130,000 tons in August. On the demand side, the trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is restricted, which may lead to reverse price transmission in the industrial chain [1]. - Investment Strategy: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Continuously monitor the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - A project of Hubei Hanshen Material Technology Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 10,000 tons of optical adhesives has been filed for construction, with a total investment of 55 million yuan and planned to start in September [1]. - China will provide 7,000 MW of solar modules to Iran, and the project funds will be borne by the Iranian National Development Fund. If the plan progresses as scheduled, it will help Iran alleviate the power shortage problem [1].