铁矿石：需求超预期增加，短期高位震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - With the Fed's rate - cut decision made and macro - disturbances significantly reduced, the market's focus is expected to shift to real - world trading. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing. Although pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended, hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure for continuous inventory accumulation is low. Therefore, iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price will fluctuate within a range, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased on a month - on - month basis. Australian shipments have dropped significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the average in the past five weeks is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. In this period, blast furnace steel mills have continued to resume production, mainly due to the normal resumption after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang regions. Domestic demand is higher than the average level in August (240.5). The daily average hot metal output in this period is 242.36 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.34). As the production cost of steel mills rises and the price of finished products weakens, the blast furnace profit has declined from a high level and is approaching the break - even point. The profitability rate of steel mills continues to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand has basically ended. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level of steel mills has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume in this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to the high domestic demand and the insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure for inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - based operation and covered call options [3].