碳酸锂日报：市场或已计价多数利空，碳酸锂反内卷伺机而动-20250926

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with strong price resilience in the context of increasing supply and demand, but lacking a breakthrough driver [3] - The lithium carbonate market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected to experience a period of tight supply [6] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - Main Contract and Basis: On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day's 72,880 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened significantly from 620 yuan/ton on September 24 to - 540 yuan/ton [1] - Position and Trading Volume: On September 25, the position of the main contract slightly expanded to 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume slightly shrank to 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [1] Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: On September 19, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose to 71.31%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from 66.41% on September 12. The price of spodumene concentrate was stable at 6,390 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate remained at 3,400 yuan/ton. However, lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month in August, and future supply increments may be restricted by tight raw materials [2] - Demand Side: From September 1 to 21, new - energy vehicle retail sales reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 58,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials increased to 120,750 yuan/ton. But pre - holiday stockpiling is nearing the end, and demand may decline after October [2] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: On September 19, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,531 physical tons, a reduction of 981 tons from 138,512 physical tons on September 12, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the basis was - 540 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the main contract position was 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [5] - From September 19 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, and the inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotes - On September 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in the peak demand season, pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream material factories is nearing the end, and market sentiment is turning cautious. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a period of tight supply [6] Downstream Consumption - From September 1 to 21, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 58.5%. The wholesale volume was 724,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 55.4% [7] Industry News - On September 11, a "Lithium Belt in Asia" was discovered in China, spanning four provinces and regions [9] - On September 10, news of the potential restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine spread, and the company planned to restart production in November, but the outcome is uncertain [9]