内需偏弱下的经济修复与政策应对

Economic Overview - The GDP deflator index has experienced negative growth for 9 consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, marking the longest period of decline since the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis, which lasted 6 and 3 quarters respectively[1][11][24]. - The current deflation is structurally different from past instances, lacking external shocks and characterized by prolonged duration and complex structural features[2][24]. Structural Causes of Weak Domestic Demand - The current deflation is not merely due to "insufficient demand," but is a result of a chain reaction involving real estate, debt, and fiscal policies, leading to weakened wealth effects and corporate profits[2][31]. - The decline in real estate prices and sales has adversely affected household wealth and corporate profits, further compressing credit supply and investment[2][31]. International Comparisons and Lessons - Japan's experience with deflation highlights the importance of timely policy responses and the risks of premature tightening, which can lead to a downward spiral in the "nominal-profit-credit" chain[3][48]. - The Eurozone's recovery from deflation relied on coordinated monetary and fiscal policies, emphasizing the need for a combination of measures rather than relying solely on price-driven tools[3][48]. Policy Recommendations - Short-term re-inflation pressures are significant, necessitating fiscal support, monetary easing, and structural reforms to stabilize nominal growth[4][30]. - The fiscal strategy should involve higher deficit rates and long-term bonds to support public investment, while monetary policy should focus on yield curve management and structural tools to enhance credit transmission[4][30].