中辉期货热卷早报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1][3][5] - Iron Ore: Hold long positions initially, then suggested to close long positions [1][8][9] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1][10][13] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1][14][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish, suggest to take profit on long positions [1][18][20] Core Views - Steel Products: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, with real estate and infrastructure still dragging. The supply is high, and after the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade in a range [1][3][5] - Iron Ore: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. With pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong in the short term, but the upward driving force is insufficient after the restocking is nearly finished [1][7][8] - Coke: Coke has started the first round of price increase but it is not yet finalized. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: Domestic coking coal production is recovering, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed due to high molten iron output. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later, and it will trade in a range [1][14][16] - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the supply is still high, and the subsequent destocking may be difficult. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but high warehouse receipts suppress the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, production is flat, and inventory continues to decline, but the destocking speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high, and downstream demand is weak [1][4][5] - Hot - rolled Coil: The apparent demand has little change, production has slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The overall change is small, and supply - demand is relatively stable [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Market Conditions: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. Steel mills and ports have increased their inventories, and the restocking is nearly finished. The short - term fundamentals are strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [1][7][8] Coke - Market Conditions: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coking enterprises and steel mills. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, production is relatively stable, but production has slightly decreased and inventory has increased. The demand is high due to high molten iron output, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] Coking Coal - Market Conditions: Domestic production is recovering, approaching last year's level, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed by high molten iron output. The total inventory is increasing, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later [1][14][16] Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking may be difficult. The cost supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][18][19] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts are still high, suppressing the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19]