聚酯数据日报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is favorable due to strong polyester filament sales, enhanced cost support, and high expectations of PTA device maintenance under low processing fees, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the PTA market is under pressure as domestic PTA devices return, PTA production increases, the PTA basis declines rapidly, and OPEC+ raises oil production, causing a significant drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha [2]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures rebounded slightly, and the spot market price strengthened slightly, but the basis negotiation continued to weaken. The overall inventory of MEG continued to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. However, the MEG price is under continuous pressure due to domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based MEG devices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE Crude Oil: The price rose from 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, to 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, an increase of 8.3 yuan [2]. - PTA - SC: The value decreased from 1121.1 yuan/ton to 1112.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.32 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3199 to 1.3121, a decrease of 0.0077 [2]. - CFR China PX: The price rose from 812 to 817, an increase of 5; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 215 to 211, a decrease of 4 [2]. - PTA: The主力 futures price rose from 4626 yuan/ton to 4678 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the spot price rose from 4525 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot processing fee increased from 202.8 yuan/ton to 213.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.6 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 268.8 yuan/ton to 291.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.6 yuan; the basis remained unchanged at (73); the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 32714 [2]. - MEG: The主力 futures price rose from 4234 yuan/ton to 4246 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (133.86) yuan/ton to (131.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price rose from 4301 to 4315, an increase of 14 yuan; the basis increased from 68 to 70, an increase of 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.57% [2]. - PTA: The start - up rate decreased from 79.38% to 78.12%, a decrease of 1.26% [2]. - MEG: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 62.62% [2]. - Polyester: The load decreased from 89.00% to 87.81%, a decrease of 1.19% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - Polyester Filament: The price of POY150D/48F decreased from 6600 to 6530, a decrease of 70 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 40 to (86), a decrease of 126 yuan; the price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6745 to 6720, a decrease of 25 yuan; the cash flow decreased from (315) to (396), a decrease of 81 yuan; the price of DTY150D/48F decreased from 7855 to 7840, a decrease of 15 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 95 to 24, a decrease of 71 yuan; the sales rate increased from 80% to 175%, an increase of 95% [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6460 to 6500, an increase of 40 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 250 to 234, a decrease of 16 yuan; the sales rate increased from 67% to 88%, an increase of 21% [2]. - Polyester Chip: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5690 to 5725, an increase of 35 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 30 to 9, a decrease of 21 yuan; the sales rate increased from 143% to 152%, an increase of 9% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA devices in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].