中辉有色观点-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating but provides individual ratings for each metal: Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, and Polysilicon are rated ★★; Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, and Lithium Carbonate are rated ★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are supported by the US government shutdown risk and dovish statements from Fed officials, with a long - term bullish outlook [1][3] - Copper prices are driven by macro - micro resonance, and there is a long - term positive view on copper due to supply shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short - term, with a long - term view of supply increase and demand decrease [1][9][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches, with short - term buying opportunities [1][13][14] - Nickel prices rebound but are restricted by demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][17][18] - Lithium carbonate is in a state of both supply and demand growth, showing short - term strength [1][21][22] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - Market Review: Despite the decrease in rate - cut expectations, the increase in future uncertainty risks has led to a significant rise in gold and silver prices [2] - Logic: US economic data is unexpectedly good, reducing the probability of rate cuts. However, the US government shutdown risk and dovish statements from Fed officials support gold and silver. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - Strategy: Gold has short - term support at 840, and silver has support around 10000. Long - term long positions in both can be continued [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by over 3%, hitting a new high for the year [6] - Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight due to a mine accident at Grasberg. The processing fee TC is deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September. Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing [6] - Strategy: Short - term speculative long positions in copper can be held, with trailing stop - loss. Long - term strategic long positions should be held with option protection. For the long - term, copper is highly regarded [7] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, returning to the 22,000 mark [9] - Logic: Zinc concentrate supply will be abundant in 2025. Domestic smelter maintenance in September will reduce zinc ingot production. The SHFE zinc inventory has increased, while the LME zinc inventory continues to decline. Downstream enterprises are restocking before the holiday [9] - Strategy: Close short positions in Shanghai zinc before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina stabilized at a low level [12] - Logic: Overseas rate cuts are in line with expectations. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly in August, and the inventory changed slightly. The downstream processing industry's operating rate increased slightly. Alumina supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite supply [13] - Strategy: Short - term long positions in Shanghai aluminum can be considered, with attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded and then declined, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [16] - Logic: Overseas rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with an oversupply of refined nickel. The stainless steel market has a consumption peak - season expectation, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17] - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement in downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a nearly 1% increase [20] - Logic: Supply remains stable, and demand has received multiple policy supports. The total inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is lower than last year [21] - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of 73,500 - 75,200 [22]