中辉期货品种策略日报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term bearish outlook: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish or require caution. For example, soybean meal has limited upside due to harvest and inventory, while cotton is pressured by supply and weak demand [1][8][11]. - High - level oscillation: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation due to trade disputes and inventory cycles [1]. - Weak - oscillation in the short - term: Palm oil and soybean oil are likely to experience weak oscillations in the short - term because of policy uncertainties and inventory concerns [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Price data: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract, daily close) is 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 37.43 yuan or 1.25% [2]. - Inventory data: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, down 70.30 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons (5.26%) week - on - week, and their soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons (7.35%) week - on - week [3]. - Market analysis: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term domestic supply is sufficient. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continuous downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Price data: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract, daily close) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan or 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 37.9 yuan or 1.50% [4]. - Inventory data: As of September 19, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [5]. - Market analysis: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, but the impact of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade limits the upside. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Price data: The futures price of palm oil (main contract, daily close) is 9222 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9250 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 2.04% [6]. - Inventory data: As of September 19, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons (8.79%) week - on - week [7]. - Market analysis: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and expected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to show a weak - oscillation trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil export in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - Price data: The futures price of cotton (CF2601, main contract) is 13530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous value. The domestic spot price is 15107 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - Supply - demand data: US cotton harvest is progressing, and other northern hemisphere countries are also about to enter the harvest season, increasing supply pressure. Domestic new cotton harvest has started, and the demand performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal, and the foreign trade outlook is weak [9][10][11]. - Market analysis: It is expected to maintain a pressured - oscillation market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short - term [11]. 3.5 Jujube - Price data: The futures price of jujube (CJ2601, main contract) is 10970 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 1.72% from the previous value. The price of Hebei special - grade grey jujube has a slight increase [12]. - Supply - demand data: The estimated new - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap considering the carry - over inventory. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - Market analysis: Concerns about quality are gradually easing, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to be cautious in trading and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Price data: The futures price of live pigs (Lh2511, main contract) is 12685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. The national average spot price is 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [16]. - Supply - demand data: In the short - to - medium term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long - term, the number of fertile sows is decreasing [17]. - Market analysis: The spot price is under pressure. In the short - term, the 11 - contract should be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse - spread strategy should be maintained [18].