航运衍生品数据日报-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market has rebounded. CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged 10 - second - week freight rate of 1400 has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has set the late - October freight rate at 1800, a 400 increase from the early - October rate [6]. - In the European shipping market, based on IPMI data, the cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late - September to late - October, shipping companies are "grabbing cargoes", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rate will fall to the May low by late - October, and shipping companies will start to support the price through contracts after the cargo volume rebounds in November. The suspension of voyages during the National Day has limited impact on the market due to the low cargo volume. A price increase notice during the holiday, combined with pre - holiday cargoes, may drive up prices in the peak season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 14.31% to 1198, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.45% to 1120. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - West America, SCFI - East America, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also declined significantly, with drops ranging from 8.84% to 31.07%. However, the SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 17.15% and 5.75% respectively [4]. - EC Contracts: The prices of EC contracts (EC2506, EC2608, etc.) showed an upward trend, with涨幅 ranging from 1.91% to 6.81%. The EC2606 and EC2608 contracts had a slight change in positions, while the EC2410 contract saw a significant decrease in positions by 5414. The month - spread values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 also changed, with the 10 - 12 spread decreasing by 28.0 and the 12 - 4 spread increasing by 62.5 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The goods transportation through the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to the disagreement between the Kazakh and Russian governments on the customs union agreement, and the negotiation completion date is unknown. The Polish - Belarusian border may open on Tuesday or Wednesday this week [5]. - In the first week of September, the booking volume from China to the US decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and the booking volume from the US to China decreased by 18%. Tariffs remain a key variable for market fluctuations [5]. 3.3 Strategy - A positive spread strategy for the 10 - 12 period is recommended [8].